How GDP May Propel Boise Real Estate

Posted by Gavin J. King

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter as businesses drew down inventories at a much slower pace and boosted investment, a government report showed on Friday. Based on this good news, the Boise real estate market will be buoyed by the gains in economy.

In its second reading of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, the Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 5.9% annual rate, rather than the 5.7% pace it estimated last month. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. Posting an impressive 2.2% increase, the third quarter led all to date. If we go back to the 2003 number the Boise real estate market would be on solid footing.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 5.7% rate in the October-December period. While the economy rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009 from the worst downturn since the 1930s, data so far suggests the rapid rate of acceleration slowed somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. Even thought consumer spending and the housing markets were down, the fact that businesses increased investment in software and equipment helped add some steadiness to the economy and allowed business to liquidate bloated inventories. Being part of the fabric of the national economy, Boise real estate definitely had similar results.

Demand remains low as indicated by the reduction in actual growth of 1.9% from the projected growth of 2.2%, which reduced inventories and brought some balance back. With inventory figures nearly halved, from $33.5 billion to $16.9 billion, the fourth quarter tailed off considerably. They dropped $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.88 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. Such a dramatic increase has not been seen since the final quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

As a whole, the year 2009 featured the most dramatic decrease in GDP, at 2.4%, since the post World War II recovery of 1946. Toward the end of 2009, consumer spending had to be reduced from the projected 2% to 1.7% in consumer spending. Although offset soon afterward, the “cash for clunkers” program drove GDP, by stimulating consumption, up by a respectable 2.8%. A huge block of our economy normally comes from consumer spending, around 70%, but in the fourth quarter of 2009 it only added a minuscule 1.23%. In such a financial crisis, the Boise real estate market is not independent of the national trends.

Businesses continued to invest in equipment and necessary software at such a rate that the commercial real estate slump was not a cause of negative number in the Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter. Business investment rose at a 6.5% rate, much faster than the 2.9% pace estimated last month. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. With an anticipated increase of 5.7% for the fourth quarter, the construction numbers were a bit of a disappointment when they came in at 5%. Posting an increase of just under 19% in the third quarter, there was quite a disparity between quarters. Contributing a .3% increase in GDP, imports and exports were significantly stronger in the fourth quarter than previously anticipated. In the Boise real estate industry, the GDP and other market factors are closely watched.

Tags: Real Estate

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